Despite Binance’s recent skirmishes with the regulatory authorities in the United States, there is a 90% assurance that Bitcoin’s price will exceed $40,000 by December, crypto services provider Matrixport said in a Nov. 23 research note shared with CryptoSlate.

Binance, the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, agreed to a more than $4 billion settlement with the U.S. authorities on Nov. 20 for violating several finance-related laws. As part of the agreement, Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao resigned as CEO after pleading guilty to money laundering-related charges.

However, Matrixport does not see the incidence weighing on the market as it has already identified a “robust counter-trend reaction” from BTC’s “temporary correction.”

“We anticipate a high likelihood of Bitcoin surpassing $38,000 by the end of this month with an 80% probability, followed by a rally above $40,000 in December with a 90% probability,” according to Markus Thielen, the research head at Matrixport.

The firm further highlighted Tether’s USDT stablecoin growing market capitalization as another indication that institutional investors are shifting their fiat into stablecoin and will “potentially convert them into other cryptocurrencies, such as Bitcoin.”

Besides that, the analyst cited the recent hike in BTC transaction fees as further evidence of bullishness, saying:

“Notably, there has been a noticeable increase in fees across various blockchains, with Bitcoin exhibiting the most significant rise in monthly fees this month. Bitcoin prices surged by +28% in October 2023 as the probability of a Bitcoin spot ETF being listed in the U.S. increased. Though November appears to be a month of consolidation with average returns of +6%, it is clocking in at +8.5%. This indicates that seasonality appears to be influencing the market again.”

Macro-environment supports crypto

Also, Thielen noted that the current “macro-environment continues to support crypto.”

According to the analyst, bond yields are expected to fall to 2.60% within the next two years as the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield appeared to have peaked at 4.95% for this cycle and is (nearly) testing last year’s high.

“This re-pricing of bond yields is poised to trigger a new boom for the stock market, particularly benefiting second-tier technology stocks, which typically correlate with second-tier (altcoins) cryptocurrencies,” Thielen wrote.

As such, traders have increasingly allocated risk capital towards Ethereum as a higher beta trade. He added:

“Ethereum’s short-term re-enter level is $2,030. The shorter-term model went long on September 27 at $1,600. Our longer-term model suggested a long position on October 25 at $1,787.”