$250K Bitcoin? Tim Draper says halving, Bitcoin ETFs will drive demand

cyptouser7 months agoCryptocurrencies News114
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Renowned venture capitalist Tim Draper sees Bitcoin (BTC) tripling in value in 2024 due to inflows into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the looming Bitcoin halving.

Speaking to Cointelegraph during Paris Blockchain Week, Draper reiterated his belief that Bitcoin would drastically increase in value considering several factors in 2024.

“If I had to predict, maybe we could see $250,000 by the end of the year, I mean it’s looking pretty good,” Draper said as he reflected on his previous price prediction for 2022.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States has been a critical driver of renewed interest and capital inflows into the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Draper believes the investment products have opened up a new avenue for Bitcoin-curious investors that might be daunted by the prospect of holding BTC in self-custody and also serve as a hedge against devaluing fiat currencies:

“I think that it gives people an opportunity to buy some Bitcoin and hold on to it so that they can take care of themselves when there's a run on the dollar or the euro.”

He also highlighted the appeal for investors who want their respective fund managers to continue managing their portfolios. Access to a Bitcoin ETF allows investors to continue working with Fidelity or JPMorgan and have this new asset class managed as part of their wider investments. 

Draper said that Bitcoin’s finite supply and increasing adoption as a payment option for goods or services would increase its appeal to the masses. At the same time, fiat currencies grapple with inflation and decreased purchasing power.

“I don’t really need to hold on to any fiat currency that decreases in value over time because of political whims or government spending, or politicians that just decide they’re going to spend more money and inflate your money,” Draper said.

The venture capital investor added that Bitcoin continues to be a “place of great security” against inflation.

“I think I've actually started to see the lines cross. People feel more comfortable with their Bitcoin than they do with their dollars.”

The fourth Bitcoin halving is also set to have a significant impact on market dynamics. The event, earmarked for April 20, is one that investors should not underestimate, as Draper explains:

“If you’re an investor in the stock market, they say don’t bet against the Fed. If you’re a Bitcoin buyer, don’t bet against the halving. It changes everything. The supply shrinks, the demand increases, and the price goes up. That's natural economics — supply and demand,” Draper said.

The venture capitalist also reiterated his belief that having single digit percentage exposure to Bitcoin is becoming a more attractive means of hedging against rising concerns over bank failures and devaluing sovereign currencies.

Magazine: Bitcoin ETFs make Coinbase a ‘honeypot’ for hackers and governments: Trezor CEO

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The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI), which tracks global Bitcoin energy consumption, has undergone its first major update since 2019, influenced by evidence pointing to frequent overestimating Bitcoin’s electricity usage.

A new report is said to shed light on the evolution of Bitcoin mining and to clarify the rationale behind the changes in CBECI’s methodology, providing an in-depth analysis of the transition of Bitcoin mining hardware – from CPUs to GPUs, then FPGAs, and finally to the current state-of-the-art ASIC miners.

Mining efficiency evolution.

The CBECI noted that the efficiency of ASICs experienced a rapid surge initially but has since seen a tapering in growth as we reach the limitations of semiconductor technology. This slowdown has direct implications on the lifespan of miners, affecting the assumed replacement cycles, with estimates ranging from 1.5 years (academia) to 3-5+ years (industry).

Its methodology has been revised to account for this increased computing power of newer models, such as the Antminer S19 XP, which boasts a 140 TH/s capacity compared to the 11.5 TH/s of the 2016 Antminer S9.

CBECI further asserted that the introduction of ASICs triggered an exponential growth in Bitcoin’s hashrate, from less than 1 EH/s in 2010 to over 300 EH/s in early 2023, revolutionizing mining from a home computer activity to a professional endeavor.

Hashrate growth.

While a higher hashrate enhances Bitcoin’s security, it also escalates mining difficulty and the computing power necessary to earn block rewards. Comprehending these drivers of hashrate growth was reportedly crucial to reevaluating the CBECI methodology.

According to the report, investigations into hashrate growth factors revealed a strong correlation between the increase in imported mining hardware to the US and the overall network hashrate growth. Additionally, sales data from Canaan Creative indicated that their latest models accounted for nearly 45% of their hashrate sales in 2021, suggesting that these more efficient models likely contribute more to hashrate growth than previously assumed by the CBECI methodology.

Upon applying the new CBECI methodology, the 2021 estimate was significantly reduced by 15 TWh, or 14% (from 104 TWh down to 89 TWh), and the 2022 estimate was cut by 9.8 TWh, or 9% (from 105.3 TWh down to 95.5 TWh).

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