Bitcoin (BTC) price rallied to the coveted $70,000 mark amid a noticeable surge in spot buying and spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) purchasing, with the cryptocurrency community pondering whether the bull market is just beginning or nearing its peak. 

Bitcoin charts and spot ETF activity highlight the trend reversal

Analyst “ELI5 of TLDR” suggested that the majority of on-chain indicators point to a nascent bull market, despite some showing topping patterns. The recent support bounce near $60,000 has sparked increased interest, with Farside Investors reporting approximately $950 million in inflows last week, a figure not seen since March.

Should this trend continue, BTC could potentially exceed expectations. Currently, BTC is trading within a few hundred dollars of $70,000, with the 20-day EMA at $64,371 and a positive RSI indicating that an upward breakout is more likely. Overcoming the $68,000 resistance suggests that BTC price is on the path to $73,777, though this level may trigger a strong bearish response.

Conversely, a break below the moving averages could signal a bearish downturn, with potential drops to $59,600 and $56,552.

Changing U.S. monetary policy buoys Bitcoin price

In the broader economic context, Bitcoin’s 51% year-to-date gain is reflective of investors' anticipation of U.S. monetary expansion, which saw the M2 monetary base surpass $21.0 trillion in April 2024.

This increase in circulating money hints at rising inflationary pressures despite a period of spending hesitancy by companies and individuals. The United States Federal Reserve’s strategies to manage inflation and avoid a recession could impact the liquidity and, consequently, the attractiveness of scarce assets like Bitcoin.

Related: ETFs buy 3X new BTC supply — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

Exchange reserves hit seven-year low as Bitcoin nears all-time high

Adding to the bullish sentiment, exchange BTC reserves have plummeted to a seven-year low, with CryptoQuant data showing only 1,918,417 BTC available on major trading platforms as of May 19, a significant decrease from the previous year.

This scarcity, coupled with the recent halving event that has halved the potential new supply from miners, makes a bearish stance on Bitcoin increasingly difficult to justify.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.