Bitcoin circling the $30,000 mark nine months ahead of next halving

cyptouser1 years agoCryptocurrencies News311

A notable lack of volatility marks Bitcoin’s current cycle, as the leading cryptocurrency meanders below the $30,000 mark. In this phase, even minor price dips spur expectations of more significant falls, again bringing previous support levels into focus. However, investor optimism seems to emerge when it inches upwards, sparking calls for a breach of the 30k threshold. According to Glassnode data, it has been nearly 842 days since Bitcoin hit its all-time high in April 2021.

Interestingly, the fact that Bitcoin is trading about 54% below its peak is a notable improvement over previous cycles. This sideways movement, however, could potentially unsettle even the most steadfast investors. Notably, Glassnode identifies that recovery beyond the 54% mark took approximately six months in past cycles, placing us on the doorstep of the next halving event slated for April 2024. Furthermore, Bitcoin’s realized and implied volatility metrics continue to edge toward record lows, mirroring levels unseen since 2016/2017. Realized volatility, reflecting past price changes, stands at 35%, while the anticipatory measure of implied volatility has dipped to 30%, a new low.

Volatility: (Source: Glassnode)
Volatility: (Source: Glassnode)
Price performance since cycle ATH: (Source: Glassnode)
Price performance since cycle ATH: (Source: Glassnode)


Tag: BITCOIN
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Cambridge Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index lowers estimate by 14%, revises methodology

The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI), which tracks global Bitcoin energy consumption, has undergone its first major update since 2019, influenced by evidence pointing to frequent overestimating Bitcoin’s electricity usage.

A new report is said to shed light on the evolution of Bitcoin mining and to clarify the rationale behind the changes in CBECI’s methodology, providing an in-depth analysis of the transition of Bitcoin mining hardware – from CPUs to GPUs, then FPGAs, and finally to the current state-of-the-art ASIC miners.

Mining efficiency evolution.

The CBECI noted that the efficiency of ASICs experienced a rapid surge initially but has since seen a tapering in growth as we reach the limitations of semiconductor technology. This slowdown has direct implications on the lifespan of miners, affecting the assumed replacement cycles, with estimates ranging from 1.5 years (academia) to 3-5+ years (industry).

Its methodology has been revised to account for this increased computing power of newer models, such as the Antminer S19 XP, which boasts a 140 TH/s capacity compared to the 11.5 TH/s of the 2016 Antminer S9.

CBECI further asserted that the introduction of ASICs triggered an exponential growth in Bitcoin’s hashrate, from less than 1 EH/s in 2010 to over 300 EH/s in early 2023, revolutionizing mining from a home computer activity to a professional endeavor.

Hashrate growth.

While a higher hashrate enhances Bitcoin’s security, it also escalates mining difficulty and the computing power necessary to earn block rewards. Comprehending these drivers of hashrate growth was reportedly crucial to reevaluating the CBECI methodology.

According to the report, investigations into hashrate growth factors revealed a strong correlation between the increase in imported mining hardware to the US and the overall network hashrate growth. Additionally, sales data from Canaan Creative indicated that their latest models accounted for nearly 45% of their hashrate sales in 2021, suggesting that these more efficient models likely contribute more to hashrate growth than previously assumed by the CBECI methodology.

Upon applying the new CBECI methodology, the 2021 estimate was significantly reduced by 15 TWh, or 14% (from 104 TWh down to 89 TWh), and the 2022 estimate was cut by 9.8 TWh, or 9% (from 105.3 TWh down to 95.5 TWh).

Cambridge Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index lowers estimate by 14%, revises methodology

Cambridge Bitcoin Energy Consumption Index lowers estimate by 14%, revises methodology

The Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI), which tracks global Bitcoin energy cons...